Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released the Outlook for Principal Field Crops last Friday.

Below you'll find some of the highlights from that report.

Wheat and Durum projections for 2023-24:

Total wheat supplies for 2023-24 are forecast at 32.8 million tonnes with an expected increase in seeded areas.

Meantime, the total durum wheat supply is projected to be just shy of six million tonnes,  despite a drop in seeded areas but thanks to stronger yield expectations. 

Market expectations for the new crop year put the average SK CWRS 1, 13.5 per cent protein spot price down to $400  per tonne.

The Field Crop Outlook puts the 2023-24 forecasts the average spot price for SK CWAD 1, 13 per cent protein at $410 per tonne.

Exports for wheat are expected to see a drop due to increased competition from Europe and the US.

Coarse Grain projections for 2023-24:

Canadian barley seeded area for 2023-24 is forecast at three million hectares up five percent from 2022-23.

Exports are expected to decline given the outlook for larger global feed grain supplies, while domestic use should increase with stronger feed use expected.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at $350/t, lower than the $410/t predicted for 2022-23, partly reflecting an anticipated good domestic supply and lower US corn prices in 2023-24.

The Canadian corn area for the new crop year is forecast at 1.45 million hectares, down from last year’s historical high but still on par with the recent five-year average. 

Exports should still be above average but are projected to decline, given the outlook for larger global feed grain supplies.

The 2023-24 Chatham average price is projected at $280 per tonne, lower than the 2022-23predicted record high of $31 per tonne, largely due to the anticipated lower US corn price.

Oilseed projections:

Canola area for 2023-24 is forecast to increase to 8.8 million hectares with favorable prices and limited expansion.

The 2023-24 outlook puts domestic crush at 9.5 million tonnes assuming none of the crush plants announced become operational if a major plant comes on stream that could bump up the crush by another million tonnes.

Soybean planted area for 2023-24 is projected to increase by 7 per cent to 2.28 million hectares.  

Production is forecast at 6.77 million tonnes, up 0.23 million tonnes from last year. 

Total domestic use is forecast to fall slightly on a steady crush of 1.9 million tonnes, while exports are up 0.3 million tonnes from 2022-23

The simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast to drop to $ 660 per tonne which is still higher than the five-year average of $563 per tonne.

Pulse projections:

According to Statistics Canada, the 2023-24  seeded area for peas is expected to be lower at 1.3 million hectares due to below-average export demand and stronger market returns for other crops.

For the 2022-23  crop year, green dry pea prices are expected to be at a $30 per tonne premium to yellow pea prices, compared to a $60 per tonne green pea discount to yellow peas in 2021-22.

For 2023-24, the lentil area is expected to be marginally lower at 1.73 million hectares, due to higher expected returns for other crops, while exports are forecast to be unchanged at 2.3 million tonnes.

The average price for all lentil grades is forecast to drop but remain historically high from 2022-23 levels with increased world supply.

Check out Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's complete Outlook for Principal Field Crops here.