The message delivered by Saskatchewan Health Authority CEO Scott Livingstone on November 26 could not have been more clear. Saskatchewan residents need to shrink their bubbles in order to combat the spike in COVID-19 transmission.

The news was delivered as the SHA delivered its preparedness report to the province. Livingstone provided documentation showing how the health system is being strained. Contact tracing has reached its limits and additional personnel are being hired or are being redeployed to try to outpace the 32,000 hours of work per two week cycle that is now required. 

Infrastructure Management Director Derek Miller noted the over 300 percent rise in cases over the last 30 days. That explosive growth has necessitated changes in the way hospitals deliver services, particularly smaller rural ones. As of November 25, Saskatoon had almost reached peak capacity in terms of ICU beds meaning that patients both COVID and non-COVID are being diverted in the system to ease pressure. 

Livingstone reported that in some contact tracing cases, a single positive case was yielding 150 contacts, a situation the Health Authority says is untenable. The SHA is responding by further increasing testing and processing up to 4000 per day. To this end, an additional 76 lab positions have been added. The increased volume places additional strain of the contact system. The Health Authority had determined that the demand on specialized positions has now outspripped available trained personnel in the marketplace. 

As the current acute care accommodations reach capacity current in the system, Miller says the next step is to draw down on other internal avenues such as facilities for elective surgeries and therapies, and eventually activating the two field hospitals set up in Saskatoon and Regina.

While the system is prepared for an up to 400 percent increase in acute COVID care patients, says Miller, personnel would become an issue in that scenario.

“Our major challenge would be staffing that goes along with the requirements,” said Miller. “All of the surge plans have identified spaces to surge into meet these numbers, but the staffing to go along with this will be an ongoing challenge for us.”

Compounding the staffing challenges is the fact that front line health care workers are falling to the virus. The system is experiencing increasing levels of absenteeism because of workers testing positive or having to self-isolate due to close contacts. Miller pointed out again that the level of skill required to undertake these positions means that replacements are not readily available to enter the system in spite of the Health Authority’s continuing recruitment efforts. 

Livingstone summed up the briefing with a simple and dire forecast.

“If this number does not shrink, the health system is surely going to struggle in respect to both our COVID and non-COVID loads, and despite our best planning, it would be inevitable for us to be overcome if we do not get the virus in check.”

Livingstone implored the province’s residents to “double down” in supporting public health orders and severely restricting numbers of contacts in order to begin, as Livingstone put it, “crushing this virus.”